What would the Weather be like?


There is a science behind the question of what does human growth hormone do to your body. For one, it plays a significant role in building and repairing tissues in the organ. Likewise with how science plays a part in human growth hormone, the same thing goes in predicting weather forecasts.

More Accurate Weather Forecasting Scale

New weather satellites are launched to earth’s orbit and with every launch, it’s equipped with better and powerful technology. Meteorologists are relying on data from ships, planes, weather stations, buoys and satellites to get prediction of what the weather would be like for the day or the following week.

Meteorologists and climatologists are using two kinds of forecasting and these are:

  1. Probabilistic and;
  2. Deterministic

Both of these methods have several subsets. To give you an example, a deterministic forecast is predicting specific event that’ll happen at a given place and location. This could be like the touchdown of a tornado or arrival of hurricane.

Probabilistic weather predictions on the other hand is suggesting the prospective weather events that might take place in a certain place throughout a set period of time. An example would be storm that might last for few days. On the other hand, climate changes because of the excess greenhouse gases in our atmosphere might bring some frustration to the forecasters as it becomes more difficult to predict the weather.

Methods used in Climatology

Climatology method is offering basic technique in rendering weather predictions. Meteorologists are using this particular method after they’ve reviewed weather statistics that has been gathered from years of research and calculate averages. They are predicting weather for specific location and day based on weather conditions for that same given on from the past years.

Analog Method

As a matter of fact, this approach is a bit more difficult in terms of weather prediction. It’s because this procedure demands finding a day from the past years that has the same weather like what is currently forecasted.

For instance, suppose that the current forecast is indicating a warm day with cold front imminent in region of forecast. The weather guy may just remember the same day in past months that led to development of thunderstorms afterwards. The forecaster can predict similar weather type by using the analog comparison. The thing is, even small differences between the present and past could have a different outcome.

This is the exact reason why analog method might not be the optimal choice in compiling weather forecast.

Persistence and Trends Method

In this model, it needs thorough skill and broad experience in predicting weather. It is because it depends on past trends. That’s why for quick weather predictions or forecast, this is the approach frequently used.